THE IMPACT OF GDP PER CAPITA ON LIFE EXPECTANCY IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between GDP per capita and life expectancy across a diverse set of countries using cross-country panel data. The study aims to assess whether economic prosperity, as measured by income per person, translates into improved population health outcomes. While the existing literature generally supports a positive association between national income and life expectancy, this research provides a more nuanced understanding by incorporating fertility rates as a moderating factor in the analysis. Using econometric estimation techniques, including fixed effects and interaction models, the study demonstrates that higher GDP per capita is consistently linked to longer life expectancy; however, the magnitude of this effect varies significantly depending on a country’s fertility level. In societies with high fertility rates, the beneficial impact of rising income on health outcomes appears weaker, suggesting that the distribution of resources across larger household sizes may reduce the gains typically derived from higher income. Conversely, countries with lower fertility rates tend to exhibit a stronger and more direct relationship between economic growth and increased longevity, highlighting the role of demographic transitions in shaping public health benefits. The findings underscore that while economic growth is an important driver of improved living conditions and access to healthcare, income alone is insufficient to guarantee substantial advancements in life expectancy. Structural demographic factors, such as fertility decline, shape how effectively income gains are translated into health improvements. Furthermore, the study suggests that social policies—particularly those related to education, reproductive health, and gender equality—play a crucial role in enabling countries to convert economic resources into meaningful health outcomes. These results have important implications for policymakers: strategies aimed solely at increasing GDP per capita may yield limited improvements in population health unless accompanied by targeted interventions that address demographic pressures and social inequalities. By integrating economic and demographic perspectives, this research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of life expectancy and highlights the need for coordinated policy efforts that encompass both economic development and social welfare.
Keyword : GDP per capita; Life expectancy; Fertility rate; Economic growth; Public health policy
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development. Journal of Political Economy, 115(6), 925–985. Anand, S., & Ravallion, M. (1993). Human development in poor countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(1), 133–150. Barro, R. J. (2013). Health and economic growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 14(2), 329–366. Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (2013). A new dataset of educational attainment. Journal of Development Economics, 104, 184–198. Becker, G. S., Philipson, T. J., & Soares, R. R. (2005). The quantity and quality of life. American Economic Review, 95(1), 277–291. Behrman, J. R., & Wolfe, B. (1987). How does mother's schooling affect family health? Journal of Econometrics, 36(1–2), 185–204. Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2000). The health and wealth of nations. Science, 287(5456), 1207–1209. Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2008). Population health and economic growth. The World Bank. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Chan, K. (2006). Higher education and economic development in Africa. Harvard University Press. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2004). The demographic dividend. Rand Corporation. Bloom, D. E., & Sachs, J. (1998). Geography, demography, and economic growth in Africa. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 207–295. Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles. World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419–455. Caldwell, J. C. (1986). Routes to low mortality in poor countries. Population and Development Review, 171–220. Cutler, D., Deaton, A., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2006). The determinants of mortality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(3), 97–120. Deaton, A. (2013). The great escape: Health, wealth, and the origins of inequality. Princeton University Press. Easterlin, R. A. (2001). Income and happiness: Towards a unified theory. Economic Journal, 111(473), 465–484. Elo, I. T., & Preston, S. H. (1996). Educational differentials in mortality. Population Bulletin, 51(2), 1–48. Fogel, R. W. (2004). The escape from hunger and premature death, 1700–2100. Cambridge University Press. Gerring, J., Thacker, S. C., & Alfaro, R. (2012). Democracy and human development. Journal of Politics, 74(1), 1–17. Glossary. (n.d.). Glossary | DataBank. Retrieved May 2, 2025. Gwatkin, D. R. (2000). Health inequalities and the health of the poor. Bulletin of the WHO, 78(1), 3–18. He, L., & Li, N. (2020). The linkages between life expectancy and economic growth. Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2381–2402. Helliwell, J. F., Layard, R., & Sachs, J. (2016). World Happiness Report 2016. UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press. Joumard, I., André, C., & Nicq, C. (2010). Health care systems: Efficiency and institutions. OECD Working Paper No. 769. Karunarathne, M., Buddhika, P., Priyamantha, A., Mayogya, P., Jayathilaka, R., & Dayapathirana, N. (2025). Restoring life expectancy in low-income countries. BMC Public Health, 25(1), 894–22. Khan, H. T. (2008). Population growth and health outcomes. Public Health, 122(12), 1342–1345. Leigh, A., Jencks, C., & Smeeding, T. (2009). Health and economic inequality. In Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality (pp. 384–405). Lorentzen, P., McMillan, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2008). Death and development. Journal of Economic Growth, 13(2), 81–124. Lutz, W., & KC, S. (2011). Global human capital: Integrated scenarios. Population and Development Review, 37(2), 301–325. Marmot, M. (2005). Social determinants of health inequalities. The Lancet, 365(9464), 1099–1104. Metadata Glossary—GDP Growth (GDP Per Capita Growth). (n.d.). Glossary | DataBank. OECD. (2020). Health at a glance 2020: OECD indicators. OECD Publishing. Ogunjimi, L. O., & Huygen, K. (2019). Sanitation and health outcomes in developing countries. International Journal of Public Health, 64(3), 325–336. Pritchett, L., & Summers, L. H. (1996). Wealthier is healthier. Journal of Human Resources, 31(4), 841–868. Preston, S. H. (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Population Studies, 29(2), 231–248. Roser, M., Ritchie, H., & Dadonaite, B. (2023). Life expectancy. Our World in Data. Sen, A. (1999). Development as freedom. Oxford University Press. Shaw, J. W., Horrace, W. C., & Vogel, R. J. (2005). The determinants of life expectancy. Health Economics, 14(4), 365–382. Spears, D. (2013). How much international variation in child height can sanitation explain? World Bank Working Paper 6351. Strauss, J., & Thomas, D. (1998). Health, nutrition, and economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, 36(2), 766–817. Strauss, J., & Thomas, D. (2007). Health over the life course. In Handbook of Development Economics, 4, 3375–3474. UNDP. (2020). Human Development Report 2020. UNDP. United Nations. (2019). World population prospects 2019. UN DESA. Weil, D. N. (2007). Accounting for the effect of health on economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3), 1265–1306. WHO. (2019). Global Health Observatory: Life expectancy. World Health Organization. Wilmoth, J. R., & Horiuchi, S. (1999). Rectangularization revisited. Population and Development Review, 25(4), 734–759. World Bank. (2021). World development indicators. World Bank Publications. Zaman, S., Hossain, N., & Mehta, P. (2017). Mortality and the global burden of diseases. Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 36(1), 1–10. Zimmerman, F. J., & Woolf, S. H. (2014). Understanding the role of socioeconomic status in health. JAMA, 311(18), 1809–1810.